Both the East Bay Express (2/15) and the Daily Review (2/20) have articles on the recent "poll" conducted by candidate John Dutra for the State Senate race. Dutra's polls show, conveniently, that Dutra is ahead in the race by 40 percent, compared to 29 percent for Ellen Corbett, 15 percent for Johan Klehs, and 17 percent undecided.
I frankly don't know if this poll was or was not conducted in a scientific manner.
I was, in fact, contacted by one (or another?) of Dutra's pollsters this past weekend, and the pollster was very, very amateurish. The intent of the "poll" was unclear, and the "poll" ended with a "vote for John Dutra for California State Senate" goodbye tagline. This is similar to what Johan Klehs reported in the Daily Review.
A "professional" pollster would ALWAYS need to ROTATE the list of the candidates to remove the "first heard name is the preferred candidate" BIAS. Apparently, the Dutra poll asked if your favored candidate was: a) Dutra, b) [Ellen] Corbett, c) [Johan] Klehs, or d) Undecided. PROPER polling technique would be to RANDOMIZE the listing of names in the response....I don't know for certain, but I sincerely doubt that the names were randomized. (To prove it, I or others would need to review the interviewer training materials, and the customized scripts for every respondent....)
I think there's something going on: a preliminary poll conducted for the Dutra campaign, and some sort of amateur poll meant to pump up name recognition.
By the way, my response to the Dutra poll was "undecided."
Dutra for Senate website: http://www.johndutra.com/
Corbett for Senate website: http://www.corbettforsenate.com/
Klehs for Senate (no website?)
More information on the State Senate District #10 race: http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/elections/SD10
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